January 18, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Tagir Ulanbekov's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tagir Ulanbekov for the expected result. Had Clayton Carpenter pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 082 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Tagir Ulanbekov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 100 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 046 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Tagir Ulanbekov slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Tagir Ulanbekov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:01 | 6:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Tagir Ulanbekov edged out Clayton Carpenter on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 6:49 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 400 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +17 |
Tagir Ulanbekov demonstrated extended layoff with 400 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tagir Ulanbekov capitalized on this activity level, while Clayton Carpenter's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Tagir Ulanbekov extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Clayton Carpenter is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Clayton Carpenter | Tagir Ulanbekov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.