March 1, 2025
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Cody Brundage's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cody Brundage for the expected result. Had Julian Marquez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 008 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 143 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -35 |
Cody Brundage earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 79 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 697 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Cody Brundage controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 37 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cody Brundage capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 919 | 874 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Cody Brundage landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Cody Brundage demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cody Brundage capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Marquez's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Cody Brundage started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Marquez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cody Brundage | Julian Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 008 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.