September 16, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 956 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +79 |
Vagner Rocha earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Cody McKenzie was submitted.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 006 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Vagner Rocha edged the striking exchanges with 53 vs 31 total strikes. Vagner Rocha capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:32 | 5:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 853 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -162 | +162 |
Vagner Rocha dominated Cody McKenzie on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:41 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +57 |
Vagner Rocha demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vagner Rocha capitalized on this activity level, while Cody McKenzie's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Vagner Rocha started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cody McKenzie is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cody McKenzie | Vagner Rocha |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

