Cody McKenzie vs Vagner Rocha

September 16, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

967
(-47)
Cody McKenzie
Winner: Vagner Rocha
Submission
Round 2 • 3:49

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Cody McKenzie-47
Vagner Rocha+55
1033
(+55)
Vagner Rocha

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -33Vagner Rocha: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Total UFC Fights32
Experience Gap1-1
Experience ELO9561 012
ELO Change-33+35
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -22Vagner Rocha: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9801 002
ELO Change-22+22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -51Vagner Rocha: +79

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:493:49
Win Type ELO9941 048
ELO Change-51+79
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What Happened

Vagner Rocha earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Cody McKenzie was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -37Vagner Rocha: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Significant Strikes Landed1518
Significant Strikes Attempted4348
Total Strikes Landed3153
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0061 005
ELO Change-37+37
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What Happened

Vagner Rocha edged the striking exchanges with 53 vs 31 total strikes. Vagner Rocha capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -162Vagner Rocha: +162

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time0:325:41
Ground Strikes Landed09
Ground ELO8531 153
ELO Change-162+162
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What Happened

Vagner Rocha dominated Cody McKenzie on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:41 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -23Vagner Rocha: +57

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Days Since Last Fight23898
Activity ELO9851 038
ELO Change-23+57
💡

What Happened

Vagner Rocha demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vagner Rocha capitalized on this activity level, while Cody McKenzie's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -23Vagner Rocha: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9841 006
ELO Change-23+25
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What Happened

Vagner Rocha started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cody McKenzie is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Cody McKenzie: -22Vagner Rocha: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricCody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9801 002
ELO Change-22+22
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.