December 9, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:41 | 0:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +44 |
Sage Northcutt earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Cody Pfister was submitted.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Cody Pfister controlled the striking through superior volume (40 vs 19 total strikes), superior accuracy (62.5% vs 88.9%). However, since Cody Pfister lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sage Northcutt's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:16 | 1:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 922 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Sage Northcutt controlled Cody Pfister on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:56 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 153 | 69 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +63 |
Sage Northcutt demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 69 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Cody Pfister's 153-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Sage Northcutt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cody Pfister is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cody Pfister | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

