December 14, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 357 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +47 |
Joaquin Buckley overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (15 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Colby Covington.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 179 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 520 | 1 543 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Joaquin Buckley gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 75 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 151 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 468 | 1 490 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Joaquin Buckley controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 37 significant strikes, 49.7% vs 29.8% accuracy. Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:40 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 554 | 1 378 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Joaquin Buckley did not secure a significant ground advantage against Colby Covington on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:18 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 365 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 370 | 1 435 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +67 |
Joaquin Buckley demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this activity level, while Colby Covington's 365-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 293 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +68 |
Joaquin Buckley continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Colby Covington's now at 0.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 147 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.