June 17, 2016
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Colby Covington's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Colby Covington for the expected result. Had Jonathan Meunier pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:54 | 0:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 187 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -25 |
Colby Covington earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jonathan Meunier was submitted.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 211 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Colby Covington controlled the striking exchanges with 78 vs 40 total strikes, 55.9% vs 69.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Colby Covington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Colby Covington dominated Jonathan Meunier on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 9:09 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Colby Covington demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Colby Covington capitalized on this activity level, while Jonathan Meunier's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -18 |
Colby Covington started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jonathan Meunier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

