November 5, 2021
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 396 | 1 546 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (14 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 200 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +30 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Kamaru Usman captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 536 | 1 775 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Kamaru Usman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 107 | 123 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 281 | 293 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 119 | 158 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 480 | 1 842 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Kamaru Usman dominated the striking exchanges with 158 vs 119 total strikes, 123 vs 107 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Kamaru Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:54 | 1:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 619 | 1 847 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kamaru Usman landed 2 knockdowns followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 414 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 343 | 1 543 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +14 |
Kamaru Usman demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kamaru Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Colby Covington's 414-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 15 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 321 | 1 722 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +68 |
Kamaru Usman extended his incredible 15-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Colby Covington is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 171 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.