December 15, 2023
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 399 | 1 504 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (16 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 204 | 1 412 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +36 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Leon Edwards captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 548 | 1 716 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Leon Edwards earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 126 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 505 | 1 638 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Colby Covington controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (109 vs 65 total strikes), significant strike advantage (44 vs 57), superior accuracy (34.9% vs 52.8%). However, since Colby Covington lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Leon Edwards's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:04 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 588 | 1 675 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Leon Edwards controlled Colby Covington on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 651 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 392 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Leon Edwards demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Leon Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Colby Covington's 651-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 321 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Leon Edwards extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Colby Covington is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 170 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.