August 19, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 169 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Colby Covington's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Colby Covington for the expected result. Had Max Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:18 | 2:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 230 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -21 |
Colby Covington gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 161 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 249 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Colby Covington dominated the striking exchanges with 161 vs 33 total strikes, 26 vs 13 significant strikes, 56.5% vs 37.1% accuracy. Colby Covington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:10 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 318 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Colby Covington dominated Max Griffin on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 10:10 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 153 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -15 |
Colby Covington demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Colby Covington capitalized on this activity level, while Max Griffin's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Colby Covington extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 077 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

