August 2, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 417 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -11 |
Colby Covington overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Robbie Lawler.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 200 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 489 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Colby Covington earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 179 | 78 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 515 | 167 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 201 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 448 | 1 343 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Colby Covington dominated the striking exchanges with 201 vs 82 total strikes, 179 vs 78 significant strikes, 34.8% vs 46.7% accuracy. Colby Covington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 18 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 662 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Colby Covington controlled Robbie Lawler on the ground with 10 vs 0 takedowns, 8:43 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 420 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 350 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -23 |
Colby Covington demonstrated extended layoff with 420 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Colby Covington capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 324 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -17 |
Colby Covington continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Robbie Lawler's now at 0.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 188 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.