September 18, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 418 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -28 |
Colby Covington overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tyron Woodley.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 210 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 1:19 | 1:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 556 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | +103 | -52 |
Colby Covington gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 78 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 143 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 232 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 506 | 1 458 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -122 |
Colby Covington dominated the striking exchanges with 232 vs 67 total strikes, 78 vs 34 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 41.0% accuracy. Colby Covington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:01 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 652 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Colby Covington dominated Tyron Woodley on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 12:01 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 354 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Colby Covington demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Colby Covington capitalized on this activity level, while Tyron Woodley's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 327 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Colby Covington started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tyron Woodley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 187 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.