November 7, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 093 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -16 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:26 | 3:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 136 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -26 |
Colby Covington earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:26, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Wagner Silva was submitted.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 179 | 880 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Colby Covington dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 23 total strikes, 23 vs 16 significant strikes, 37.1% vs 27.1% accuracy. Colby Covington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:23 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 797 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Colby Covington dominated Wagner Silva on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 8:23 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -18 |
Colby Covington demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 78 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Colby Covington capitalized on this activity level, while Wagner Silva's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Colby Covington extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wagner Silva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colby Covington | Wagner Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

