Colby Covington vs Warlley Alves

December 11, 2015

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1112
(-26)
Colby Covington
Winner: Warlley Alves
Submission
Round 1 • 1:26

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Colby Covington-26
Warlley Alves+36
1164
(+36)
Warlley Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -25Warlley Alves: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Total UFC Fights44
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 1301 132
ELO Change-25+37
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -21Warlley Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0421 085
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -44Warlley Alves: +84

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:261:26
Win Type ELO1 1491 258
ELO Change-44+84
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What Happened

Warlley Alves earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:26, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -26Warlley Alves: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Significant Strikes Landed22
Significant Strikes Attempted24
Total Strikes Landed22
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1771 145
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

Colby Covington controlled the striking through superior accuracy (100.0% vs 50.0%). However, since Colby Covington lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Warlley Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -30Warlley Alves: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time1:030:00
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 2081 372
ELO Change-30+30
💡

What Happened

Warlley Alves edged out Colby Covington on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -23Warlley Alves: +45

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Days Since Last Fight204134
Activity ELO1 0891 131
ELO Change-23+45
💡

What Happened

Warlley Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Warlley Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Colby Covington's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -21Warlley Alves: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Win Streak04
Win Streak ELO1 0581 107
ELO Change-21+30
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What Happened

Warlley Alves extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Colby Covington is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Colby Covington: -21Warlley Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricColby CovingtonWarlley Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0421 085
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.