July 4, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -31 |
Cole Miller overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jorge Gurgel.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -34 |
Cole Miller earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jorge Gurgel was submitted.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 141 | 127 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Jorge Gurgel controlled the striking through superior volume (76 vs 59 total strikes), significant strike advantage (54 vs 41), superior accuracy (42.5% vs 29.1%). However, since Jorge Gurgel lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cole Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:06 | 4:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 087 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Cole Miller controlled Jorge Gurgel on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:06 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 102 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -21 |
Cole Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 164 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cole Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Jorge Gurgel's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Cole Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jorge Gurgel is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cole Miller | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.