August 13, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Cole Miller's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cole Miller for the expected result. Had TJ O'Brien pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 214 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -19 |
Cole Miller earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. TJ O'Brien was submitted.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 048 | 861 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Cole Miller controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cole Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 144 | 884 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Cole Miller dominated TJ O'Brien on the ground with 0:49 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 1 146 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Cole Miller demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cole Miller capitalized on this activity level, while TJ O'Brien's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Cole Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. TJ O'Brien is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cole Miller | TJ O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

