Cole Miller vs TJ O'Brien

August 13, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1110
(+29)
Cole Miller
Winner: Cole Miller
Submission
Round 2 • 2:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Cole Miller+29
TJ O'Brien-28
938
(-28)
TJ O'Brien

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +22TJ O'Brien: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Total UFC Fights102
Experience Gap8-8
Experience ELO1 101951
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

Cole Miller's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cole Miller for the expected result. Had TJ O'Brien pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +17TJ O'Brien: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 070963
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +29TJ O'Brien: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:382:38
Win Type ELO1 214948
ELO Change+29-19
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What Happened

Cole Miller earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. TJ O'Brien was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +41TJ O'Brien: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Significant Strikes Landed3228
Significant Strikes Attempted7661
Total Strikes Landed3628
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 048861
ELO Change+41-41
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What Happened

Cole Miller controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cole Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +75TJ O'Brien: -75

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:490:07
Ground Strikes Landed90
Ground ELO1 144884
ELO Change+75-75
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What Happened

Cole Miller dominated TJ O'Brien on the ground with 0:49 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +16TJ O'Brien: -13

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Days Since Last Fight204267
Activity ELO1 146971
ELO Change+16-13
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What Happened

Cole Miller demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cole Miller capitalized on this activity level, while TJ O'Brien's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +17TJ O'Brien: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 086965
ELO Change+17-16
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What Happened

Cole Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. TJ O'Brien is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Cole Miller: +17TJ O'Brien: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricCole MillerTJ O'Brien
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 070963
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.