June 27, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 907 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Diego Ferreira overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Colton Smith.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:38 | 0:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 928 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +81 |
Diego Ferreira locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:38 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 867 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Diego Ferreira slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 2 significant strikes. Diego Ferreira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 858 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 234 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Diego Ferreira demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Diego Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Colton Smith's 234-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Diego Ferreira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Colton Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.