November 5, 2013
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:41 | 1:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +52 |
Michael Chiesa earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Colton Smith was submitted.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 908 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Michael Chiesa slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 36.8% vs 22.2% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:11 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 963 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Michael Chiesa controlled Colton Smith on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:21 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 166 | 103 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +49 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated solid activity levels with 103 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Colton Smith's 166-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Colton Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

