December 14, 2012
Ultimate Fighter 16 Welterweight Tournament Title Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 042 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Colton Smith earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 058 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Colton Smith dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 10 total strikes, 15 vs 9 significant strikes, 83.3% vs 60.0% accuracy. Colton Smith capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:26 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 908 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Colton Smith dominated Mike Ricci on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 12:26 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Colton Smith demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Colton Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Ricci's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Colton Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Ricci is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Colton Smith | Mike Ricci |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

