March 29, 2024
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Dennis Buzukja's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dennis Buzukja for the expected result. Had Connor Matthews pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:22 | 0:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 950 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +100 |
Dennis Buzukja gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 138 | 201 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 871 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -129 | +129 |
Dennis Buzukja controlled the striking exchanges with 84 vs 62 total strikes, 83 vs 60 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dennis Buzukja capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 971 | 933 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Dennis Buzukja landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +47 |
Dennis Buzukja demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dennis Buzukja capitalized on this activity level, while Connor Matthews's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Dennis Buzukja started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Connor Matthews is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Connor Matthews | Dennis Buzukja |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

