January 17, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 34 |
| Experience Gap | -22 | 22 |
| Experience ELO | 1 397 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -25 |
Conor McGregor overcame a 22-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 34 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Donald Cerrone.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 263 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:40 | 0:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 640 | 1 446 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -34 |
Conor McGregor secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:40 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 666 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Conor McGregor controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 0 total strikes, 19 vs 0 significant strikes, 73.1% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Conor McGregor capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 338 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Conor McGregor landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 470 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 370 | 1 443 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -28 |
Conor McGregor demonstrated extended layoff with 470 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Conor McGregor capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 290 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Conor McGregor started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 369 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.