November 11, 2016
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 356 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Conor McGregor's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Conor McGregor for the expected result. Had Eddie Alvarez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 270 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -16 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Conor McGregor captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:04 | 3:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 604 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -8 |
Conor McGregor gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 639 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Conor McGregor dominated the striking exchanges with 40 vs 12 total strikes, 32 vs 9 significant strikes, 38.1% vs 22.0% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Conor McGregor capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 0:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 338 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Conor McGregor landed 3 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 129 |
| Activity ELO | 1 368 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -10 |
Conor McGregor demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Conor McGregor capitalized on this activity level, while Eddie Alvarez's 129-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 282 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -11 |
Conor McGregor extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eddie Alvarez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | Yes | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 391 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +239 | -16 |
HISTORIC DOUBLE CHAMPION ACHIEVEMENT! Conor McGregor etched his name into MMA legend by capturing the Lightweight title while already having held another belt. This ultra-rare multi-division champion status triggered a massive multiplier, delivering a colossal 239-point bonus - one of the highest individual rewards in the entire algorithm!
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.