October 5, 2018
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 336 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 247 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +70 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Khabib Nurmagomedov captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 3:03 | 3:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 551 | 1 591 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +79 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 3:03, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Conor McGregor was submitted.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 604 | 1 564 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov controlled the striking exchanges with 70 vs 51 significant strikes. Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 12:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 45 |
| Ground ELO | 1 276 | 1 668 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov dominated Conor McGregor on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:15 of control time, 45 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 693 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 345 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Conor McGregor's 693-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 11 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 268 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +88 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov extended his incredible 11-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Conor McGregor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 359 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.