March 4, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 288 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Nate Diaz's 14-fight experience advantage (22 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Conor McGregor pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 205 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:12 | 4:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 574 | 1 485 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +107 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Conor McGregor was submitted.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 140 | 152 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 89 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 559 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Nate Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 89 vs 66 total strikes, 77 vs 61 significant strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 1:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 258 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | -130 | +130 |
Nate Diaz controlled Conor McGregor on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:10 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 295 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +66 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Conor McGregor's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 250 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +34 |
Nate Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Conor McGregor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 132 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.