August 19, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 336 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -25 |
Conor McGregor overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 23 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Diaz.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 221 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 587 | 1 472 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Conor McGregor earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 164 | 166 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 286 | 343 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 197 | 252 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 602 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Nate Diaz controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (252 vs 197 total strikes). However, since Nate Diaz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Conor McGregor's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:31 | 5:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Conor McGregor did not secure a significant ground advantage against Nate Diaz on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:31 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 339 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -25 |
Conor McGregor demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Conor McGregor capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 269 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Conor McGregor started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 152 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.