July 4, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:57 | 3:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 022 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +84 |
Justin Buchholz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Corey Hill was submitted.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 071 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Corey Hill controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (34 vs 24). However, since Corey Hill lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Justin Buchholz's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:32 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 993 | 974 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Justin Buchholz edged out Corey Hill on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | 164 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +41 |
Justin Buchholz demonstrated solid activity levels with 164 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Buchholz capitalized on this activity level, while Corey Hill's 164-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Justin Buchholz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Corey Hill is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Corey Hill | Justin Buchholz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

