March 12, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 951 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +36 |
JJ Aldrich overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Cortney Casey.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 955 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 045 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with JJ Aldrich receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 131 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 121 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Cortney Casey controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (121 vs 58 total strikes), significant strike advantage (55 vs 45), superior accuracy (42.0% vs 56.3%). However, since Cortney Casey lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. JJ Aldrich's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 5:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 825 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
JJ Aldrich dominated Cortney Casey on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:44 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 267 | 420 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +21 |
JJ Aldrich demonstrated extended layoff with 420 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, JJ Aldrich capitalized on this activity level, while Cortney Casey's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
JJ Aldrich started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cortney Casey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 955 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.