May 15, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 010 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Cortney Casey's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cortney Casey for the expected result. Had Mara Romero Borella pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 929 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -33 |
Cortney Casey earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Mara Romero Borella controlled the striking through superior accuracy (71.4% vs 50.0%). However, since Mara Romero Borella lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cortney Casey's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Cortney Casey edged out Mara Romero Borella on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 454 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 094 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -15 |
Cortney Casey demonstrated extended layoff with 454 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Cortney Casey capitalized on this activity level, while Mara Romero Borella's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Cortney Casey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mara Romero Borella is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cortney Casey | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

