Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella

May 15, 2020

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1029
(+30)
Cortney Casey
Winner: Cortney Casey
Submission
Round 1 • 3:36

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Cortney Casey+30
Mara Romero Borella-27
949
(-27)
Mara Romero Borella

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +30Mara Romero Borella: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Total UFC Fights116
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 010934
ELO Change+30-30
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What Happened

Cortney Casey's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cortney Casey for the expected result. Had Mara Romero Borella pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +22Mara Romero Borella: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO992957
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +54Mara Romero Borella: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:363:36
Win Type ELO1 093929
ELO Change+54-33
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What Happened

Cortney Casey earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +18Mara Romero Borella: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Significant Strikes Landed65
Significant Strikes Attempted127
Total Strikes Landed1821
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 032916
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Mara Romero Borella controlled the striking through superior accuracy (71.4% vs 50.0%). However, since Mara Romero Borella lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cortney Casey's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +59Mara Romero Borella: -59

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time0:002:55
Ground Strikes Landed31
Ground ELO1 013973
ELO Change+59-59
💡

What Happened

Cortney Casey edged out Mara Romero Borella on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +14Mara Romero Borella: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Days Since Last Fight45491
Activity ELO1 094963
ELO Change+14-15
💡

What Happened

Cortney Casey demonstrated extended layoff with 454 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Cortney Casey capitalized on this activity level, while Mara Romero Borella's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +23Mara Romero Borella: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 004962
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Cortney Casey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mara Romero Borella is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Cortney Casey: +22Mara Romero Borella: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricCortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO992957
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.