January 18, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Cory Sandhagen's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cory Sandhagen for the expected result. Had Mario Bautista pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:31 | 3:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 238 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -20 |
Cory Sandhagen earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:31, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 277 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Cory Sandhagen controlled the striking exchanges with 17 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cory Sandhagen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 206 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Cory Sandhagen dominated Mario Bautista on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:39 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -17 |
Cory Sandhagen demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cory Sandhagen capitalized on this activity level, while Mario Bautista's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Cory Sandhagen extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mario Bautista is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.