July 23, 2021
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 291 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
TJ Dillashaw's 8-fight experience advantage (17 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Dillashaw for the expected result. Had Cory Sandhagen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 133 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 520 | 1 546 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with TJ Dillashaw receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 128 | 110 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 281 | 268 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 171 | 169 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 461 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Cory Sandhagen controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (128 vs 110). However, since Cory Sandhagen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. TJ Dillashaw's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 19 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 8:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 261 | 1 501 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
TJ Dillashaw controlled Cory Sandhagen on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 8:22 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 917 |
| Activity ELO | 1 310 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
TJ Dillashaw demonstrated extended layoff with 917 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, TJ Dillashaw capitalized on this activity level, while Cory Sandhagen's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 183 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
TJ Dillashaw started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cory Sandhagen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cory Sandhagen | TJ Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 120 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.