May 12, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 30 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Matt Brown's 9-fight experience advantage (30 vs 21 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Court McGee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 975 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:09 | 4:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 064 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +38 |
Matt Brown earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 73.3% vs 25.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:57 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 153 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against Court McGee on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 329 | 413 |
| Activity ELO | 1 044 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Matt Brown demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Court McGee's 329-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Court McGee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Court McGee | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 975 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

