June 14, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Michael Chiesa overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (21 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Court McGee.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 973 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 138 | 1 452 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Michael Chiesa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 160 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Michael Chiesa controlled the striking exchanges with 81 vs 51 total strikes, 72 vs 39 significant strikes, 45.0% vs 26.9% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 1:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 160 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Michael Chiesa did not secure a significant ground advantage against Court McGee on the ground with 1:32 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +11 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Court McGee's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +14 |
Michael Chiesa extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Court McGee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Court McGee | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 973 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.