October 9, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 962 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:14 | 1:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 932 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +40 |
Nate Marquardt earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:14, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Crafton Wallace was submitted.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 871 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Nate Marquardt edged the striking exchanges with 13 vs 4 significant strikes, 48.1% vs 22.2% accuracy. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 3:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 826 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Nate Marquardt dominated Crafton Wallace on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:35 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 54 | 220 |
| Activity ELO | 962 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 220 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Crafton Wallace's 54-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Nate Marquardt extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Crafton Wallace is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Crafton Wallace | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

