July 28, 2017
UFC Women's Featherweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 122 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Cristiane Justino's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cristiane Justino for the expected result. Had Tonya Evinger pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -19 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Cristiane Justino captured the UFC Women's Featherweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:56 | 1:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 222 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -22 |
Cristiane Justino gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 74 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 143 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 268 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Cristiane Justino controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 34 total strikes, 74 vs 32 significant strikes, 51.7% vs 37.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cristiane Justino capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 133 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Cristiane Justino landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Cristiane Justino demonstrated standard activity with 308 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Cristiane Justino capitalized on this activity level, while Tonya Evinger's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Cristiane Justino extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tonya Evinger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cristiane Justino | Tonya Evinger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Featherweight | Women's Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.