March 1, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 944 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Kazuki Tokudome overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Cristiano Marcello.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 933 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Kazuki Tokudome earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 919 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Kazuki Tokudome controlled the striking exchanges with 90 vs 67 total strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kazuki Tokudome capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 8:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 904 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Kazuki Tokudome landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Kazuki Tokudome demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Kazuki Tokudome capitalized on this activity level, while Cristiano Marcello's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Kazuki Tokudome started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cristiano Marcello is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cristiano Marcello | Kazuki Tokudome |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.