November 21, 2014
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 217 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Frankie Edgar's 9-fight experience advantage (17 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Frankie Edgar for the expected result. Had Cub Swanson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 100 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 4:56 | 4:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 393 | 1 507 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +61 |
Frankie Edgar earned a finish with a Submission in round 5 at 4:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Cub Swanson was submitted.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 202 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 259 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 336 | 1 496 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Frankie Edgar dominated the striking exchanges with 259 vs 62 total strikes, 93 vs 31 significant strikes, 46.0% vs 36.0% accuracy. Frankie Edgar capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 16:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 69 |
| Ground ELO | 1 132 | 1 589 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Frankie Edgar dominated Cub Swanson on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 16:08 of control time, 69 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 251 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +41 |
Frankie Edgar demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Frankie Edgar capitalized on this activity level, while Cub Swanson's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 165 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Frankie Edgar extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cub Swanson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Frankie Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.