August 11, 2023
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 179 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Cub Swanson's 13-fight experience advantage (23 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cub Swanson for the expected result. Had Hakeem Dawodu pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 096 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 330 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Cub Swanson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 77 | 95 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 176 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 152 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Hakeem Dawodu controlled the striking through superior volume (129 vs 107 total strikes), significant strike advantage (95 vs 77). However, since Hakeem Dawodu lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Cub Swanson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 3:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 123 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Cub Swanson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Hakeem Dawodu on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:25 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 301 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 233 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Cub Swanson demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Cub Swanson capitalized on this activity level, while Hakeem Dawodu's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 151 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Cub Swanson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hakeem Dawodu is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Hakeem Dawodu |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.