April 17, 2015
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Max Holloway's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Max Holloway for the expected result. Had Cub Swanson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:58 | 3:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 342 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +76 |
Max Holloway earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:58, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Cub Swanson was submitted.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 136 | 198 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 302 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Max Holloway controlled the striking exchanges with 86 vs 58 total strikes, 82 vs 56 significant strikes. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 038 | 1 279 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Max Holloway dominated Cub Swanson on the ground with 1:29 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
Max Holloway demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Cub Swanson's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 143 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +54 |
Max Holloway continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Cub Swanson's now at 0.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.