August 5, 2016
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 228 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Cub Swanson's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cub Swanson for the expected result. Had Tatsuya Kawajiri pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 373 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Cub Swanson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 109 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 349 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Cub Swanson controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 51 total strikes, 67 vs 23 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 22.8% accuracy. Cub Swanson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 5:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 156 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Cub Swanson edged out Tatsuya Kawajiri on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:02 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 167 |
| Activity ELO | 1 271 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -11 |
Cub Swanson demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cub Swanson capitalized on this activity level, while Tatsuya Kawajiri's 167-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 177 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Cub Swanson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tatsuya Kawajiri is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cub Swanson | Tatsuya Kawajiri |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

