Cub Swanson vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

August 5, 2016

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1222
(+20)
Cub Swanson
Winner: Cub Swanson
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Cub Swanson+20
Tatsuya Kawajiri-18
1041
(-18)
Tatsuya Kawajiri

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +21Tatsuya Kawajiri: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Total UFC Fights116
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 2281 063
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Cub Swanson's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cub Swanson for the expected result. Had Tatsuya Kawajiri pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +17Tatsuya Kawajiri: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1141 010
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +16Tatsuya Kawajiri: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3731 084
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

Cub Swanson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +10Tatsuya Kawajiri: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Significant Strikes Landed6723
Significant Strikes Attempted109101
Total Strikes Landed9151
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 349976
ELO Change+10-10
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What Happened

Cub Swanson controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 51 total strikes, 67 vs 23 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 22.8% accuracy. Cub Swanson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +36Tatsuya Kawajiri: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Takedowns Landed13
Takedowns Attempted112
Ground Control Time2:025:27
Ground Strikes Landed212
Ground ELO1 1561 109
ELO Change+36-36
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What Happened

Cub Swanson edged out Tatsuya Kawajiri on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:02 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +27Tatsuya Kawajiri: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Days Since Last Fight112167
Activity ELO1 2711 049
ELO Change+27-11
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What Happened

Cub Swanson demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cub Swanson capitalized on this activity level, while Tatsuya Kawajiri's 167-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +17Tatsuya Kawajiri: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1771 030
ELO Change+17-14
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What Happened

Cub Swanson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tatsuya Kawajiri is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Cub Swanson: +17Tatsuya Kawajiri: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricCub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1091 010
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.