June 25, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Joe Lauzon's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Lauzon for the expected result. Had Curt Warburton pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:58 | 1:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 000 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +39 |
Joe Lauzon earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Joe Lauzon controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 5 significant strikes, 36.4% vs 21.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joe Lauzon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 004 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Joe Lauzon dominated Curt Warburton on the ground with 0:27 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 015 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Joe Lauzon demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joe Lauzon capitalized on this activity level, while Curt Warburton's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Joe Lauzon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Curt Warburton is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Joe Lauzon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.