October 15, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Spencer Fisher's 13-fight experience advantage (14 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Spencer Fisher for the expected result. Had Curt Warburton pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Spencer Fisher earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 170 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Spencer Fisher dominated the striking exchanges with 170 vs 82 total strikes, 68 vs 45 significant strikes, 73.1% vs 56.3% accuracy. Spencer Fisher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:41 | 2:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 967 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Spencer Fisher edged out Curt Warburton on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:06 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +33 |
Spencer Fisher demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Spencer Fisher capitalized on this activity level, while Curt Warburton's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Spencer Fisher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Curt Warburton is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curt Warburton | Spencer Fisher |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

