Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis

February 19, 2021

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1310
(-43)
Curtis Blaydes
Winner: Derrick Lewis
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:26

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Curtis Blaydes-43
Derrick Lewis+50
1378
(+50)
Derrick Lewis

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -34Derrick Lewis: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Total UFC Fights1321
Experience Gap-88
Experience ELO1 2951 335
ELO Change-34+34
💡

What Happened

Derrick Lewis's 8-fight experience advantage (21 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Curtis Blaydes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -19Derrick Lewis: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1391 202
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -42Derrick Lewis: +87

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:261:26
Win Type ELO1 5411 666
ELO Change-42+87
💡

What Happened

Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -110Derrick Lewis: +110

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Significant Strikes Landed287
Significant Strikes Attempted5223
Total Strikes Landed287
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 4351 546
ELO Change-110+110
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (28 vs 7), superior accuracy (53.8% vs 30.4%). However, since Curtis Blaydes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -76Derrick Lewis: +76

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted30
Ground Control Time0:150:00
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO1 4051 390
ELO Change-76+76
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -19Derrick Lewis: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Days Since Last Fight246197
Activity ELO1 3411 411
ELO Change-19+24
💡

What Happened

Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Curtis Blaydes's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -19Derrick Lewis: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Win Streak04
Win Streak ELO1 1931 273
ELO Change-19+27
💡

What Happened

Derrick Lewis extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Curtis Blaydes is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -19Derrick Lewis: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1341 200
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.