February 19, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 295 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Derrick Lewis's 8-fight experience advantage (21 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Curtis Blaydes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:26 | 1:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 541 | 1 666 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +87 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 435 | 1 546 |
| ELO Change | -110 | +110 |
Curtis Blaydes controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (28 vs 7), superior accuracy (53.8% vs 30.4%). However, since Curtis Blaydes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 405 | 1 390 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 341 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Curtis Blaydes's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 193 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +27 |
Derrick Lewis extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Curtis Blaydes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

