September 24, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 326 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Curtis Blaydes's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Curtis Blaydes for the expected result. Had Jairzinho Rozenstruik pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 158 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 583 | 1 497 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Curtis Blaydes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 113 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 478 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Curtis Blaydes dominated the striking exchanges with 113 vs 46 total strikes, 32 vs 18 significant strikes. Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 439 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Curtis Blaydes dominated Jairzinho Rozenstruik on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:19 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 366 | 1 304 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Curtis Blaydes demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this activity level, while Jairzinho Rozenstruik's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 212 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -18 |
Curtis Blaydes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 152 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

