Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis

March 22, 2019

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1234
(+38)
Curtis Blaydes
Winner: Curtis Blaydes
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Curtis Blaydes+38
Justin Willis-35
1108
(-35)
Justin Willis

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +29Justin Willis: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Total UFC Fights95
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 2131 123
ELO Change+29-29
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Curtis Blaydes for the expected result. Had Justin Willis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +21Justin Willis: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0931 057
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +28Justin Willis: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3691 194
ELO Change+28-28
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +72Justin Willis: -72

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Significant Strikes Landed222
Significant Strikes Attempted339
Total Strikes Landed729
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 3271 139
ELO Change+72-72
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes dominated the striking exchanges with 72 vs 9 total strikes, 22 vs 2 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 22.2% accuracy. Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +70Justin Willis: -70

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Takedowns Landed70
Takedowns Attempted110
Ground Control Time11:440:00
Ground Strikes Landed130
Ground ELO1 3871 102
ELO Change+70-70
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes dominated Justin Willis on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 11:44 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +39Justin Willis: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Days Since Last Fight119112
Activity ELO1 2641 116
ELO Change+39-16
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Willis's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +23Justin Willis: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 1281 078
ELO Change+23-21
💡

What Happened

Curtis Blaydes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Willis is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: +21Justin Willis: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0911 057
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.