March 22, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Curtis Blaydes's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Curtis Blaydes for the expected result. Had Justin Willis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 093 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 369 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Curtis Blaydes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 327 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Curtis Blaydes dominated the striking exchanges with 72 vs 9 total strikes, 22 vs 2 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 22.2% accuracy. Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 387 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Curtis Blaydes dominated Justin Willis on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 11:44 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 264 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -16 |
Curtis Blaydes demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Willis's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 128 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Curtis Blaydes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Willis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

