Curtis Blaydes vs Sergei Pavlovich

April 21, 2023

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1346
(-49)
Curtis Blaydes
Winner: Sergei Pavlovich
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 3:08

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Curtis Blaydes-49
Sergei Pavlovich+70
1351
(+70)
Sergei Pavlovich

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -40Sergei Pavlovich: +67

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Total UFC Fights177
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 3291 338
ELO Change-40+67
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What Happened

Sergei Pavlovich overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Curtis Blaydes.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -26Sergei Pavlovich: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1651 126
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -54Sergei Pavlovich: +117

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:083:08
Win Type ELO1 6531 719
ELO Change-54+117
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What Happened

Sergei Pavlovich earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -104Sergei Pavlovich: +104

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Significant Strikes Landed1436
Significant Strikes Attempted5685
Total Strikes Landed1436
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 4671 692
ELO Change-104+104
💡

What Happened

Sergei Pavlovich controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 14 total strikes, 36 vs 14 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -86Sergei Pavlovich: +86

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed04
Ground ELO1 3911 306
ELO Change-86+86
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -32Sergei Pavlovich: +63

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Days Since Last Fight273140
Activity ELO1 3761 277
ELO Change-32+63
💡

What Happened

Sergei Pavlovich demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this activity level, while Curtis Blaydes's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -27Sergei Pavlovich: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Win Streak06
Win Streak ELO1 2241 220
ELO Change-27+64
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What Happened

Sergei Pavlovich continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Curtis Blaydes's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Curtis Blaydes: -26Sergei Pavlovich: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricCurtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1591 126
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.