April 21, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 329 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +67 |
Sergei Pavlovich overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Curtis Blaydes.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 165 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:08 | 3:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 653 | 1 719 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +117 |
Sergei Pavlovich earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 467 | 1 692 |
| ELO Change | -104 | +104 |
Sergei Pavlovich controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 14 total strikes, 36 vs 14 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 391 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 376 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +63 |
Sergei Pavlovich demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this activity level, while Curtis Blaydes's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 224 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +64 |
Sergei Pavlovich continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Curtis Blaydes's now at 0.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 159 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

