July 22, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 369 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Curtis Blaydes's 10-fight experience advantage (16 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Curtis Blaydes for the expected result. Had Tom Aspinall pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 191 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:15 | 0:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 707 | 1 428 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -23 |
Curtis Blaydes achieved an EXPLOSIVE KO/TKO finish in just 0:15 of round 1! This lightning-fast destruction earned massive bonus multipliers for the exceptional finish.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 571 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Tom Aspinall controlled the striking through superior accuracy (60.0% vs 40.0%). However, since Tom Aspinall lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Curtis Blaydes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 477 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 408 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -11 |
Curtis Blaydes demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Curtis Blaydes capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Aspinall's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 251 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Curtis Blaydes extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Aspinall is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curtis Blaydes | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 185 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

