February 17, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -22 | 22 |
| Experience ELO | 1 157 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +157 | -157 |
Curtis Millender overcame a 22-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 23 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Alves.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | +154 | -75 |
Curtis Millender gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 106 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 222 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +222 | -222 |
Curtis Millender dominated the striking exchanges with 47 vs 33 significant strikes, 44.3% vs 31.1% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Curtis Millender capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 074 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 317 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Curtis Millender demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Curtis Millender capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Alves's 317-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -32 |
Curtis Millender started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Curtis Millender | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

