September 24, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Jessica Andrade's 10-fight experience advantage (20 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jessica Andrade for the expected result. Had Cynthia Calvillo pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 054 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:54 | 4:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 156 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +52 |
Jessica Andrade earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 067 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Jessica Andrade controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 27 total strikes, 48 vs 27 significant strikes, 55.8% vs 36.0% accuracy. Jessica Andrade capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 218 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 308 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
Jessica Andrade demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jessica Andrade capitalized on this activity level, while Cynthia Calvillo's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Jessica Andrade started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cynthia Calvillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Jessica Andrade |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.