November 20, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Katlyn Cerminara's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Katlyn Cerminara for the expected result. Had Cynthia Calvillo pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 180 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Katlyn Cerminara earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 197 | 230 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 127 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Katlyn Cerminara edged the striking exchanges with 69 vs 60 significant strikes. Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 236 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 36 |
| Activity ELO | 1 182 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +125 |
Katlyn Cerminara demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 36 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this activity level, while Cynthia Calvillo's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Katlyn Cerminara started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cynthia Calvillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.