November 16, 2018
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 114 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Cynthia Calvillo's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cynthia Calvillo for the expected result. Had Poliana Botelho pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -46 |
Cynthia Calvillo earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 126 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Cynthia Calvillo controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 10 total strikes, 22 vs 6 significant strikes, 53.7% vs 30.0% accuracy. Cynthia Calvillo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:51 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 243 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -121 |
Cynthia Calvillo dominated Poliana Botelho on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:51 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Cynthia Calvillo demonstrated standard activity with 322 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Cynthia Calvillo capitalized on this activity level, while Poliana Botelho's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Cynthia Calvillo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Poliana Botelho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cynthia Calvillo | Poliana Botelho |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.