June 30, 2023
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Grant Dawson's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Grant Dawson for the expected result. Had Damir Ismagulov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 055 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 107 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Grant Dawson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 137 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Grant Dawson controlled the striking exchanges with 84 vs 35 total strikes, 30 vs 13 significant strikes. Grant Dawson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 12:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 101 | 1 544 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Grant Dawson dominated Damir Ismagulov on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:24 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Grant Dawson demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Grant Dawson capitalized on this activity level, while Damir Ismagulov's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 088 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Grant Dawson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Damir Ismagulov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Grant Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

